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| Alex Smart |
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South Carolina +1.0
Sat Oct 11 '08 12:30p
Kentucky prepares to play host to South Carolina in a key SEC battle, after taking part in a hard fought emotional 17-14 loss against the Alabama Crimson Tide last week. That result and effort will have the Wildcats in a let down situation , making them susceptible to a slow start.
Meanwhile, South Carolina behind QB Chris Smelley looked fantastic , upsetting Ole Miss 31-24 on the road last week , and will be primed to keep that positive momentum working for them in this spot. I am expecting Spurriers team to come out here with all guns blazing and take a early lead, against an excellent but tired D. This also makes the Gamecocks a viable first half bet.
I know winning on the road in the SEC is tough to achieve, especially two weeks in a row, but thats what I am betting will happen.
It must be noted Steve Spurrier led teams have owned this Wild Cat program in the past, winning 15 straight confrontations, including 8 in a row as a coach of the Gamecocks ( three straight against coach HC Rich Brooks. )
Projected score: South Carolina 21 Kentucky 17 |
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| LT Profits |
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Rutgers +7.5 (-110)
Sat Oct 11 '08 12:00p
The Cincinnati Bearcats managed to beat a defenseless Marshall team last week with an inexperienced quarterback, but this Rutgers defense is much tougher in the Bearcats Big East opener.
Third string quarterback and redshirt freshman Chazz Anderson will again get the start for Cincinnati here, and although he was a decent 16 for 26 vs. Marshall, he only passed for 158 yards. That approach will not work vs. a Rutgers group that actually contained West Virginia pretty well last week, and we are simply not convinced right now that Anderson is capable of having success downfield.
Now the Rutgers offense has been disappointing, but that 24-17 loss at West Virginia was actually an encouraging effort, especially with the emergence of Kenny Britt, who had 151 receiving yards on 12 receptions. If the great Cincinnati defense has an Achilles Heel, it is a pass defense that is allowing 241.8 passing yards per game. Sure, their eight interception have helped cover up this deficiency, but as long as Knights quarterback Mike Teel passes to the right uniforms, Rutgers may actually be able to generate some offense this week.
If that is indeed the case, Rutgers should not only cover this contest, but they would have an excellent chance at an outright upset.
CFB Free Pick: Rutgers +7.5 (-110) |
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Temple +8.5 (-110)
Sat Oct 11 '08 4:00p
The Temple Owls may be just 2-4 straight up, but they have been a gold mine against the spread at 5-1, with the only ATS loss being against national powerhouse Penn State on the road. Look for the Owls to gibe the Central Michigan Chippewas all that they can handle this week.
Temple was very impressive last week, going into Oxford and upsetting the Miami-Ohio Redhawks 28-10 as seven-point underdogs. That marked the fourth time in their six games this season that the Owls have allowed 12 points or less, and it is noteworthy that unlike many other teams, they did not schedule any Division 1-AA teams during their early-season non conference portion.
That defense is the very reason that Temple has been so successful vs. the number. Even with that 45-3 loss at Penn State, the Owls are allowing just 18.5 points per game. The reason they have won just two games outright is that the offense is only averaging 17.7 points, but that 28-point outburst last week was encouraging and they are facing a bad Central Michigan defense that is surrendering 30.6 points and 405.8 total yards per game.
The Chippewas have still managed to go 3-2 SU and 2-2 ATS, thanks to an offense that is averaging 26.2 points, a figure that is skewed a bit by a still respectable 17-point performance at Georgia. However, the strength of the CMU offense is the passing game, and that just happens to be the strength of a Temple defense that is stingily allowing just 6.3 yards per pass attempt.
We do not see the Chippewas getting a big lead at any point here vs. that defense, and their own defense is capable of allowing the Owls to reproduce the 28 points they scored last week, so look for a tight contest from start to finish.
CFB Free Pick: Temple +8.5 (-110) |
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Miami Dolphins +3.0 (-110)
Sun Oct 12 '08 1:00p
The Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans are certainly entering this game with different mindsets, as Miami is oozing confidence after upsetting the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers in consecutive games while the Texans are reeling from their late collapse vs. the Indianapolis Colts to fall to 0-4.
Granted, Matt Shaub should be back at quarterback for Houston after Sage Rosenfels singlehandedly gave the that Colts game away, fumbling twice in the last five minutes to help Indianapolis overcome a 27-10 deficit.
However, Shaub may be sick to his stomach again soon after this game starts, as the Dolphins have recorded 12 sacks this season and should be able to take advantage of what is still a suspect Texans offensive line. One way to slow down the Miami pass rush would be with an effective running game, but Houston lacks that right now despite a decent performance vs. a horrible Colts run defense last week.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins have done a good job of controlling clock behind the running of Ronnie Brown the last two games, and we see no reason why they cannot have more success here vs. a Texans defense 32.5 points and 334.2 total yards per game. Quarterback Chad Pennington will not beat anyone deep, but he could be very effective off of play action here.
The bottom line here is that the Dolphins are simply playing better football than Houston right now, and the fact that the Texans may been psychologically fragile right now is a nice added bonus.
NFL Free Pick: Dolphins +3 (-110) |
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Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (-110)
Sun Oct 12 '08 4:05p
This is as close to a must-win game for the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. the Denver Broncos as there can be at this relatively early stage of the year, while the Broncos have more of a comfort level with a two-game lead in the West.
Jacksonville can ill afford to fall to 2-4 if they want any realistic chance of making the playoffs, and we feel they will have success vs. a bad Denver defense here, as we feel the Broncos performance vs. Tampa Bay last week was rather flukey.
The Jaguars have had some offensive line problems, but they are luckily facing a weak Denver defensive front, so look for running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to have to have big games this week, very similar to when they faced another soft front in the Indianapolis Colts a few weeks ago.
Now the Broncos were prolific offensively early this year, but they are coming off of back-to-back sub-par efforts. The fact that they have maintained a two-game lead in the division is a negative here, as there will really be no urgency to improve on those last two weeks here, Instead, Denver may have one eye on their marquee battle with the New England Patriots next week.
The combination of a more desperate Jacksonville team and a poor Broncos defense should be enough for the Jaguars to pull the upset.
NFL Free Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-110) |
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| Matt Foust |
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West Virginia -23.5 (-110)
Sat Oct 11 '08 12:00p
Greg Robinson’s beleaguered Syracuse Orange hit the road this week to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown. West Virginia is also suffering through a disappointing season considering their pre-season expectations, but regardless of the Mountaineers ills, we are going with them minus the 23.5 this Saturday.
The Orange are just 1-4 in Robinson’s fourth year and the way their schedule shapes up, it is likely that they may not win another game. Syracuse has exactly one team strength and that is their ability to run the ball. Unfortunately for them, that will not get you very far. Consider that the ‘Cuse are being out gained by an average of 173.8 yards per game and you get the picture.
West Virginia is a particularly awful match-up for Syracuse in that their strength is running the ball (226.6 rushing yards per game) and the Orange would have trouble stopping sloth from averaging four yards per carry (206 rushing yards per game allowed). Also, the Mountaineers are 3-0 at home and have won by an average of 19.33 points per game against competition better than Syracuse.
Note: WVU quarterback Pat White went out of last week’s game versus Rutgers but he is set to start this weekend.
Things to consider: The favorite in this series is 12-4 ATS since 1992.
Free Pick: Take West Virginia -23.5 (-110) |
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New Mexico St @ Nevada Reno o67.5 (-110)
Sat Oct 11 '08 4:00p
This Saturday the Nevada Wolf Pack is set to host fellow WAC member, the New Mexico State Aggies. Given the history of this match-up and the current state of these two respective teams, we are going with the over 67.5.
Nevada, while just 3-2 on the year, is producing points in bunches and also allowing them at a rather healthy clip as well. The Wolf Pack has scored exactly 49 points in all three of their wins (their two losses came against Texas Tech and Missouri) and they figure to get close to that number or exceed it this week versus the Aggies. They also figure to let the Aggies visit the end zone in regular intervals considering that they are allowing 31.6 points per game.
New Mexico State is allowing 368 yards per game, 222.8 of which are coming on the ground. This plays right into Nevada’s game plan and strength as they are producing an astounding 306.6 rushing yards per game. Conversely, the Wolf Pack have a great deal of difficulty stopping the pass (332.2 passing yards allowed per game), and it just so happens that is what the Aggies do really well (321.8 yards per game through the air).
These two have averaged a total of 71 points per game in their last seven meetings and they have scored over 67.5 in six of those seven games.
Free Pick: Take the Over 67.5 (-110) |
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Carolina Panthers +1.5 (-110)
Sun Oct 12 '08 1:00p
The Carolina Panthers head south this weekend for a NFC South tilt with the Buccaneers. Right now the Panthers are leading the division at 4-1, but the Bucs can even things up with a win as they are sitting in second place at 3-2. We are going to go with Carolina at +1.5 on Sunday.
The Panthers appear to be running on all cylinders as they head into Tamp Bay and one of the great aspects of this team is their consistency. Jake Delhomme is about as steady a hand as there is in the league at quarterback, and the team’s play reflects that week to week.
This will be a tough, grind it out game for a couple of reasons, the first being that these two teams mirror each other in many ways, and the second is the fact that it is a division battle. The Panthers typically come out on top in these kinds of games and their ability to make big plays with the passing game gives them the edge here. Brian Griese is questionable for Tampa and if Garcia has to replace him, who knows where his psyche is at. The Panthers will force one of these two to win the game as I look for them to shut down the Bucs ground attack. Carolina has yet to allow a 100 yard rusher all season and I do not seeing it happening Sunday.
The Panthers are averaging 207 yards passing per game while the Bucs are yielding 218.6 per game. Delhomme should be able to move the chains with Steve Smith who has had some success against Tampa in the past. The Carolina running game will also keep the Bucs defense honest and take some heat off of Delhomme. John Fox’s team also has the advantage over the Bucs in both the turnover and time of possession categories.
Things to consider: The Bucs are 1-4 against the spread versus Carolina as a home favorite. Carolina is 9-1 against the spread and 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games as a road underdog versus an NFC South opponent. The Panthers are 4-0 against the spread and straight up as a road dog versus an NFC South foe with a spread of 0 to 3.5. Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS as an away dog coming off back to back straight up wins.
Free Pick: Take the Panthers +1.5 (-110) |
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| Ted Sevransky |
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St. Louis Rams +14.0
Sun Oct 12 '08 1:00p
Yes, the Redskins have won four straight games, including road upsets at Dallas and Philadelphia. But at no point in any of those four victories did the Redskins enjoy a two touchdown lead. The four victories were all decided in the fourth quarter, each coming by a touchdown or less. This is not an offense built for easy blowouts, nor does the obvious flat spot on their schedule following the two divisional road wins provide much fodder for the ‘blow out St Louis’ theory. And let’s not forget the absolute ineptitude of double digit favorites in the NFL this season. The league as a whole is a perfect 0-7 ATS when laying ten points or more.
Speaking of ‘whole league’ angles, let’s not forget a key long term angle that supports a play on the Rams in this spot. Teams that are 0-4 SU or worse, coming off their bye week, as an underdog of six points or more are a truly phenomenal long term against the spread. They spend two weeks hearing about how much they stink – from friends, family, the local media – and then these winless teams off a bye tend to take out some of their frustrations upon their opponent. Throw in a coaching change in St Louis and we can clearly see that the Rams are poised for their single best showing of the season; a major step up for a team that has now lost eight consecutive games dating back to last year, the most recent seven defeats all coming by 17 points or more. With Marc Bulger back behind center for Jim Haslett’s squad here, look for the Rams to be competitive throughout, just as winless Cinci was in Dallas last week. Take St Louis.
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