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| Alex Smart |
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Boise St -6.0
Sat Nov 22 '08 4:00p
Boise State enters into this WAC Conference tilt against Nevada as one of 5 sub division Bowl teams that remains undefeated on the season with a perfect 10-0 record. The Wolfpack their hosts own a 4-2 record in conference play and are 6-4 on the season, and would love nothing more than to up-end the Broncos bandwagon.
The Broncos in my opinion have gotten stronger and more cohesive on both sides of the rock with each successive outing this season, with the average margin of victory ringing in at 16.8 PPG, with no win coming by less than 13 points. They will be very ready for a football program that they have defeated 8 straight times, while covering the number 7 times. The most recent confrontation which occurred in this series was a see- saw battle, that resulted in a 69-67 OT victory for Boise State. That victory was the Broncos 3rd straight under this venue.
The bottom line here is that the Broncos offense can go toe to toe with any offense in this nation, including Nevada's vaunted attack. The ultimate difference maker in this matchup , however, comes on defensive side the ball, where Boise is among the nation elite stop units , ranking first in their conference and second in the country allowing just 10.3 PPG.
Final notes & Key Trends: Boise State is 27-8 L/35 November games with the average margin of the victory clicking in at 26.2 PPG.
Projected score: Boise State 41 Nevada 30 |
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Arkansas -1.5 (-110)
Sat Nov 22 '08 2:30p
The Arkansas Razorbacks and the Mississippi State Bulldogs may be the two worst teams in the SEC, but at least Arkansas can score and that should make all the difference here.
Mississippi State is one of the most offensively challenged teams in the country, as the Bulldogs are averaging 15.2 points and only 284.1 total yards of offense par game this year. Even those modest numbers are padded by a couple of outbursts vs. weak non-conference opponents (SE Louisiana, Middle Tennessee State), as the Bulldogs are average just 11.0 points in SEC play with their only conference win being by a 17-14 score vs. Vanderbilt.
Now Arkansas may be 4-6, but they are on a 4-1 run against the spread and they have scored at least 20 points in five straight games. Given the struggles of the MSU offense, 20 points may be enough to win this contest.
New coach Houston Nutt has transformed the Razorbacks into a passing offense, as they are averaging 250.2 passing yards per game. Sure, Casey Dick has been inconsistent while throwing 14 interceptions vs. 11 touchdown passes, but he does have nearly 2400 passing yards, and the way to beat this MSU defense is with big plays, as they are allowing only 3.9 yards per rushing attempt.
Look for Dick and the Arkansas offense to produce enough points to get out of here with a road win.
CFB Free Pick: Arkansas -1.5 (-110) |
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Detroit Lions +8.0 (-110)
Sun Nov 23 '08 1:00p
The Detroit Lions may be 0-10 straight up, but winless teams in the NFL do very well against the spread this time of year, so the 7-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers may be walking into an ambush here.
NFL teams that are 0-4 SU or worse have gone 49-25 ATS since the 200 season, those that are 0-10 or worse have gone 7-2 ATS and those that are exactly 0-10 have gone 3-0 ATS in Week 11 during this timeframe.
Besides, to their credit, the Lions have not quit on the field, going 4-2 ATS since they reached the 0-4 mark. They have played their hearts out, having a chance to win five of those last six games, and even in the game that became a blowout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars Detroit had the lead in the second quarter.
Now the Buccaneers may be 7-3, but their tendency to turn ultra-conservative when they get a lead and rely on their fantastic defense makes them a dicey proposition laying more than a touchdown. This is especially true on the road, where Tampa Bay is only 2-3 and have actually been outscored by -1.0 points per game.
We look for the Lions to give their all yet again, and even if there effort falls short and they go to 0-11, we feel that this spread provides enough of a cushion to get the cover this week.
NFL Free Pick: Lions +8 (-110) |
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